{
  "built": "2026-10-20",
  "version": "dc90125",
  "last_reading": "2026-10-19",
  "newest_measurement": "2026-08-09",
  "status": "not entered",
  "progress": 0.0,
  "progress_is_upper_bound": true,
  "bottleneck": "D",
  "gauges": {
    "A": 0.426,
    "B": null,
    "C": 0.52,
    "D": 0.0
  },
  "unmeasured": [
    "B"
  ],
  "headline_question": "How far along the way are we?",
  "headline": "32%",
  "headline_label": "of the way, averaged over the 3 parts that can be measured (forecasts unmeasured); all four must cross, and the slowest, the economy, is at 0%",
  "average_share": 0.315,
  "parts_past_half": 1,
  "crossing_sentence": "On current trends the economy does not cross its line, so the test is not met on current trends; the pace crosses between 2028 and 2048; the AI-research share crosses in 2027; forecasts unmeasured.",
  "crossings": {
    "A": [
      2028,
      2048
    ],
    "C": [
      2027,
      2027
    ],
    "D": null
  },
  "definition": "https://agizeitgeist.com/docs/singularity-entry-definition.html",
  "claims_ledger": {
    "claims": 330,
    "people": 15,
    "page": "https://agizeitgeist.com/claims/",
    "table": "https://agizeitgeist.com/data/claims.csv",
    "academics": {
      "n": 7,
      "people": [
        {
          "id": "yudkowsky",
          "name": "Eliezer Yudkowsky",
          "said": "2024-06-04",
          "year": 2027
        },
        {
          "id": "aschenbrenner",
          "name": "Leopold Aschenbrenner",
          "said": "2024-06-04",
          "year": 2028
        },
        {
          "id": "kokotajlo",
          "name": "Daniel Kokotajlo",
          "said": "2025-11-20",
          "year": 2030
        },
        {
          "id": "bengio",
          "name": "Yoshua Bengio",
          "said": "2025-09-03",
          "year": 2030
        },
        {
          "id": "cotra",
          "name": "Ajeya Cotra",
          "said": "2026-02-17",
          "year": 2030
        },
        {
          "id": "marcus",
          "name": "Gary Marcus",
          "said": "2026-05-13",
          "year": 2036
        },
        {
          "id": "hanson",
          "name": "Robin Hanson",
          "said": "2024-08-13",
          "year": 2094
        }
      ],
      "middle": 2030,
      "low": 2027,
      "high": 2094
    },
    "ahead_of_academics": 7,
    "leaders_with_a_date": 12,
    "now": {
      "altman": {
        "said": "2026-08-26",
        "nearest": 2026,
        "forecasts": [
          {
            "id": "2026-08-26-altman-internal-system-called-agi-by-end-of-year",
            "arrives": "agi",
            "term": "an internal system he would call AGI",
            "form": "by",
            "early": null,
            "year": 2026
          }
        ],
        "undated_words": {
          "id": "2026-09-01-altman-superintelligence-may-happen-short-term",
          "said": "2026-09-01"
        }
      },
      "musk": {
        "said": "2026-01-22",
        "nearest": 2026,
        "forecasts": [
          {
            "id": "2026-01-22-musk-ai-smarter-than-any-human-end-of-year",
            "arrives": "beyond_people",
            "term": "AI smarter than any human",
            "form": "range",
            "early": 2026,
            "year": 2027
          }
        ],
        "undated_words": {
          "id": "2026-09-14-musk-grok-5-will-be-agi",
          "said": "2026-09-14"
        }
      },
      "amodei": {
        "said": "2026-06-10",
        "nearest": 2027,
        "forecasts": [
          {
            "id": "2026-06-10-amodei-policy-powerful-ai-if-scaling-continues-one-or-two-years",
            "arrives": "beyond_people",
            "term": "powerful AI, a country of geniuses in a datacenter",
            "form": "range",
            "early": 2027,
            "year": 2028
          }
        ],
        "undated_words": null
      },
      "huang": {
        "said": "2024-03-01",
        "nearest": 2029,
        "forecasts": [
          {
            "id": "2024-03-01-huang-ai-does-well-on-every-human-test-five-years",
            "arrives": "agi",
            "term": "AGI, if it means doing well on every human test",
            "form": "by",
            "early": null,
            "year": 2029
          }
        ],
        "undated_words": {
          "id": "2026-09-06-huang-agi-has-arrived",
          "said": "2026-09-06"
        }
      },
      "hassabis": {
        "said": "2026-07-15",
        "nearest": 2030,
        "forecasts": [
          {
            "id": "2025-07-23-hassabis-agi-fifty-percent-by-2030",
            "arrives": "agi",
            "term": "AGI",
            "form": "year",
            "early": null,
            "year": 2030
          },
          {
            "id": "2026-04-07-hassabis-agi-very-good-chance-within-five-years",
            "arrives": "agi",
            "term": "AGI",
            "form": "by",
            "early": null,
            "year": 2031
          }
        ],
        "undated_words": {
          "id": "2026-09-11-hassabis-few-years-from-full-agi",
          "said": "2026-09-11"
        }
      },
      "suleyman": {
        "said": "2026-06-08",
        "nearest": null,
        "forecasts": [
          {
            "id": "2026-06-08-suleyman-singularity-not-within-five-years",
            "arrives": "superintelligence",
            "term": "the singularity: a superintelligence that recursively improves itself",
            "form": "not_before",
            "early": null,
            "year": 2031
          }
        ],
        "undated_words": {
          "id": "2026-09-17-suleyman-superintelligence-further-out",
          "said": "2026-09-17"
        }
      },
      "sutskever": {
        "said": "2025-11-25",
        "nearest": 2030,
        "forecasts": [
          {
            "id": "2025-11-25-sutskever-human-like-learner-5-to-20-years",
            "arrives": "beyond_people",
            "term": "a system that learns as well as a human, then becomes superhuman",
            "form": "range",
            "early": 2030,
            "year": 2045
          }
        ],
        "undated_words": null
      },
      "legg": {
        "said": "2025-12-11",
        "nearest": 2026,
        "forecasts": [
          {
            "id": "2010-12-10-legg-human-level-agi-mean-2028",
            "arrives": "agi",
            "term": "roughly human-level AGI",
            "form": "year",
            "early": null,
            "year": 2028
          },
          {
            "id": "2025-12-11-legg-full-agi-within-a-decade",
            "arrives": "agi",
            "term": "full AGI",
            "form": "range",
            "early": 2031,
            "year": 2035
          },
          {
            "id": "2025-12-11-legg-minimal-agi-about-two-years",
            "arrives": "agi",
            "term": "minimal AGI",
            "form": "year",
            "early": null,
            "year": 2027
          },
          {
            "id": "2025-12-11-legg-minimal-agi-one-to-five-years",
            "arrives": "agi",
            "term": "minimal AGI",
            "form": "range",
            "early": 2026,
            "year": 2030
          }
        ],
        "undated_words": {
          "id": "2026-09-16-legg-agi-on-the-horizon",
          "said": "2026-09-16"
        }
      },
      "lecun": {
        "said": "2026-09-16",
        "nearest": null,
        "forecasts": [
          {
            "id": "2026-09-16-lecun-smarter-than-humans-not-next-year",
            "arrives": "beyond_people",
            "term": "machines more intelligent than humans in nearly every domain",
            "form": "not_before",
            "early": null,
            "year": 2027
          },
          {
            "id": "2026-09-16-lecun-superintelligence-in-two-or-three-years-false",
            "arrives": "superintelligence",
            "term": "superintelligent systems",
            "form": "not_before",
            "early": null,
            "year": 2029
          }
        ],
        "undated_words": null
      },
      "liangwenfeng": {
        "said": "2024-07-22",
        "nearest": 2026,
        "forecasts": [
          {
            "id": "2024-07-22-liangwenfeng-agi-two-five-or-ten-years",
            "arrives": "agi",
            "term": "AGI",
            "form": "range",
            "early": 2026,
            "year": 2034
          }
        ],
        "undated_words": null
      },
      "mensch": {
        "said": null,
        "nearest": null,
        "forecasts": [],
        "undated_words": {
          "id": "2026-06-03-mensch-agi-a-direction-not-an-arrival",
          "said": "2026-06-03"
        }
      },
      "zuckerberg": {
        "said": null,
        "nearest": null,
        "forecasts": [],
        "undated_words": {
          "id": "2026-09-23-zuckerberg-personal-superintelligence-within-reach",
          "said": "2026-09-23"
        }
      },
      "pichai": {
        "said": "2025-06-05",
        "nearest": 2031,
        "forecasts": [
          {
            "id": "2025-06-05-pichai-agi-slightly-after-2030",
            "arrives": "agi",
            "term": "AGI",
            "form": "year",
            "early": null,
            "year": 2031
          }
        ],
        "undated_words": {
          "id": "2026-05-26-pichai-agi-sooner-rather-than-later",
          "said": "2026-05-26"
        }
      },
      "nadella": {
        "said": null,
        "nearest": null,
        "forecasts": [],
        "undated_words": null
      },
      "kaifulee": {
        "said": "2026-09-23",
        "nearest": 2028,
        "forecasts": [
          {
            "id": "2026-09-23-kaifulee-agi-about-two-years",
            "arrives": "agi",
            "term": "AGI for cognitive tasks",
            "form": "year",
            "early": null,
            "year": 2028
          },
          {
            "id": "2026-09-23-kaifulee-embodied-agi-five-to-ten-more-years",
            "arrives": "agi",
            "term": "AGI that also includes robots and embodied AI",
            "form": "range",
            "early": 2033,
            "year": 2038
          }
        ],
        "undated_words": null
      }
    }
  }
}