Coding brief: Claude's pass over the 390 pilot posts, final codebook (2026-10-04)

Given to six fresh claude-opus-5-5 coders, 65 posts each, for the full-sample run. They get the same instructions, codebook and post content that scripts/vanguard_crossfamily_pass.py sends Gemini and GPT; only the output format differs (a CSV file instead of structured output). Each coder is blind: it sees no other coder's or model's codes.

You are coding Reddit posts from r/singularity for a research dataset, following the codebook exactly. The codebook is docs/vanguard/codebook.md in /Users/john/Code/agi-zeitgeist/.claude/worktrees/happy-nobel-b75d37/. Read all of it first, including the decision rules adopted on 2026-10-03 (R2, R3) and 2026-10-04 (R1a).

Stay blind. Do not open any file under data/, any other docs/ file, or any other file in the work folder except your own input file, the image files it names, and your own output file. Don't search the web or fetch links: linked page text, where it could be read, is already in your input. Code what the post says; don't check whether claims are true.

Rules to apply:

• Video posts: code from the title only; title_only = yes; content_basis = video_title.
• Galleries, dead image files ("(image file: unavailable)"), or a title that reads "[ Removed by moderator ]": not eligible, content_unavailable.
• Image posts: open image_file with the Read tool. Code from the image only if it has legible text or a legible chart or screenshot; otherwise not eligible, image_no_text.
• Text posts whose body was removed or deleted: code from the title, title_only = yes, content_basis = text_title.
• Link posts: if linked_page_text is given, content_basis = link_page; if it says "(could not be read)", link_title and title_only = yes.
• Posts that don't mention AI are not eligible (no_ai_claim). Demo-only video titles are eligible specific_capability claims (temporal_status achieved).
• Eligible posts: list each distinct claim, the main claim first; extrapolates_to_horizon is yes/no/na for the post, repeated on each of its rows.
• attribution panel_member means the claim relays one of: Kurzweil, Bostrom, Yudkowsky, Hanson, Hinton, LeCun, Bengio, Hassabis, Legg, Altman, Marcus, Ng, Russell, Brooks, Musk, Sutskever, Chollet, Chalmers, Brynjolfsson, Schmidhuber, Kai-Fu Lee, Walsh, Tegmark, Suleyman, Amodei, Aschenbrenner, Kokotajlo, Cotra, Huang, Leike, Mollick, Cowen.
• evidence_span: 25 words or fewer, copied verbatim from the title, body, page or image text.
• frame_tags: words actually used, ;-separated, from the codebook list; blank if none.

Output: a CSV with exactly this header, one row per claim:

run_id,coder,post_id,quarter,sample,rank_or_draw,post_type,content_basis,title_only,eligible,exclusion_reason,claim_n,claim_target,si_level,temporal_status,forecast_horizon,stance,epistemic_qualification,rhetorical_mode,development_preference,attribution,frame_tags,extrapolates_to_horizon,evidence_span,notes

• run_id = vanguard-pilot-rsing-2026-10-04-claude-full-final; coder = claude-opus-5-5-full-final-pN (N = your part number). post_id, quarter, sample, rank_or_draw, post_type copied from the input.
• An ineligible post is one row: claim_n 0, eligible no, exclusion_reason set, claim fields and extrapolates_to_horizon blank.
• Eligible claims are numbered 1, 2, ... Empty values are blank (never "none"); title_only is yes or blank.
• notes: a short reason for any hard call, especially under R1a, R2 and R3.
• Every one of your posts gets at least one row. Quote fields containing commas.

Rendered from docs/vanguard/claude-coding-brief-full-final.md at version a7bd17a.