Codebook: vanguard sub-series (stream F)

How posts in the vanguard sub-series are coded. Written 2026-10-03 from section 7 of the accepted amendment docs/amendments/2026-10-02-vanguard-stream.md, the rules applied in the r/singularity pilot, and my rulings of 2026-10-03 on the pilot report. Changes go in docs/amendments.md first. (Statements by named experts, stream E, use docs/codebook.md.)

Code what the post says, not what you know about the topic or the poster. Don't check whether claims are true.

1. Content basis

post type	coded from	`title_only`
text	title and body	blank; `yes` if the body was removed or deleted and only the title survives (`content_basis: text_title`)
image	title and the image. Coded if the image has legible text or a legible chart or screenshot; otherwise not eligible (`image_no_text`). A dead image file: not eligible (`content_unavailable`)	blank
meme	as an image: the legible-text rule applies (ruling 2026-10-03)	blank
video	title only (ruling 2026-10-02)	`yes`
link	title plus the linked page if it opens; title only if it doesn't	`yes` only if title only
gallery	not eligible (`content_unavailable`); content needs reddit.com	blank

A post whose title itself reads "[ Removed by moderator ]" is not eligible (content_unavailable).

2. Eligibility

Eligible = the post asserts, disputes or relays a claim about AI capability, timeline, consequence, or the AI industry and its governance.

Rulings of 2026-10-03:

Posts that don't mention AI are not eligible (no_ai_claim), even when the subreddit makes an AI reading likely. The post itself (title, body, legible image text or opened link) must refer to AI, a model, a lab, a robot or an AI product.
Video titles that only name a demo ("Atlas does a backflip", "Will Smith eating spaghetti in Veo 3.1") are eligible capability claims (specific_capability, temporal_status: achieved).
AI company and policy drama (disputes between labs, executives' public fights, a model's political answers as a news item, government action on AI companies) is eligible under the target industry_governance.
Pure questions with no claim, slogans, off-topic posts and meta are not eligible (no_ai_claim).

3. Claims

The post is the sampling unit; each distinct claim is a row (claim_n 1, 2, ...), main claim first. An ineligible post gets one row with claim_n 0 and the claim fields blank.

field	codes
`claim_target`	`specific_capability` (a named task, model, benchmark, robot or demo); `agi` (AGI, human-level or general capability); `self_improvement` (AI doing AI research or improving itself, with `si_level`); `pace_singularity` (pace of progress, takeoff, "singularity"); `consequence` (social or economic effects of AI); `industry_governance` (AI companies, executives, labs' conduct and disputes, regulation and policy, government action on AI)
`si_level`	only for self_improvement: `si_assist`, `si_research`, `si_modify`, `si_sustained`; the lowest level the words support
`temporal_status`	`achieved`, `under_way`, `forecast`, `hypothetical`, `unspecified`
`forecast_horizon`	the exact date, range or words of a forecast; else blank
`stance`	`affirms`, `denies`, `questions`, `conditional`, `neutral_relay`, `unclear`
`epistemic_qualification`	`unqualified`, `qualified`, `explicit_probability`, `unclear`
`rhetorical_mode`	`literal`, `ironic`, `mixed`, `unclear`
`development_preference`	`supports`, `opposes`, `conditional`, `not_expressed`
`attribution`	`original`, `panel_member`, `lab_or_company`, `news_outlet`, `other_person`
`frame_tags`	words actually used, `;`-separated: agi, asi, superintelligence, singularity, takeoff, rsi, recursive, feel_the_agi, accelerate, e_acc, doom, hype, bubble, other. A benchmark or product name containing a word (ARC-AGI) is not a tag; a pun on a word ("singularity of sight") is not a tag
`extrapolates_to_horizon`	post level, repeated on each of the post's rows: does the post infer a timeline or a consequence from a capability? `yes` (e.g. "it solved six open problems, so the singularity is near"; "this robot will take warehouse jobs"); `no` (a capability is claimed but nothing is inferred from it); `na` (no capability claim in the post). Blank on ineligible rows. Ruling 2026-10-03
`title_only`	`yes` when coded from the title alone
`evidence_span`	25 words or fewer, verbatim, from the title, body or image text

Denials keep their target ("AGI is not imminent" = agi, forecast, denies).

4. Measures (amendment section 8, as revised 2026-10-03)

Primary: share of eligible posts making a capability claim (specific_capability) and a consequence claim (consequence), and the share of capability posts that extrapolate to a timeline or consequence.
Also reported: industry_governance claims.
Headline claims, reported as near-absent: AGI already achieved; AGI within a stated horizon; self-improvement under way; singularity framing (poster affirms each).
Every share is reported with and without title_only rows.

Rendered from docs/vanguard/codebook-frozen-2026-10-03-before-rules.md at version a7bd17a.