In March 2024, at an economics summit at Stanford University, Jensen Huang, who runs the chipmaker Nvidia, talked about artificial general intelligence, or AGI: machines that can do the thinking people do. If it meant passing every test we could set a computer, he said, "I'm guessing in 5 years time we'll do well on every single one of them" (the prediction). On 6 September 2026, congratulating OpenAI on a new model trained on Nvidia's chips, he posted: "AGI has arrived" (his post). In two and a half years, his own sense of where we stand had gone from five years away to here.
Moments like that are why I now keep a record of what the industry's leaders say.
Two voices
I built this tracker to follow the mood of the time around AGI and the singularity, the idea that machines will one day get smarter so fast that the world changes faster than anyone can keep up with (the home page). Two kinds of people shape that mood. One is the long-time thinkers, academics and writers who have argued about it for decades. The other is the people now running the companies that build it, whose dates tend to run ahead of everyone else's. Both are worth hearing. The thinkers give the long view; the leaders are the ones making it happen, and what they say is the clearest sign of what the industry expects right now.
What the ledger does
The claims page is the leaders' voice. It holds more than 300 dated predictions from fifteen people who run the companies building the most advanced AI or the chips it runs on, each in their own words, dated, and linked to where it was said. I read them for what they predict now and how that has shifted. It is not a scorecard. Where a prediction's date has passed, a small note on it says what happened, and I don't add those notes up (how the ledger works).
What they say now
Twelve of the fifteen have put a date on AGI or something beyond it. Seven of those twelve name a year before 2030 (the claims page). Among the experts the tracker follows are seven long-time thinkers who don't run AI companies. Line up each one's latest guess, and the one in the middle is 2030. (Two of them worked at OpenAI earlier in their careers, so they are not wholly outsiders, and the page says so.) So more than half of the leaders who give a date name a year earlier than the thinkers' middle one. Each leader uses their own words for what is coming: AGI, superintelligence, or, for Dario Amodei of Anthropic, what he calls "Powerful AI". They don't all mean the same thing, so the page gives each person's term beside their date.
Three have never put a date on it: Arthur Mensch of Mistral AI, Mark Zuckerberg of Meta and Satya Nadella of Microsoft. Not naming a year is not the same as saying nothing, so the page quotes their latest words instead. Mensch calls AGI "rather a direction than a point of arrival". Zuckerberg told his company's conference in September 2026 that "Delivering personal superintelligence is now within reach" (the claims page).
How the dates move
In April 2024 Elon Musk, who founded the AI company xAI (since renamed SpaceXSI), said an AI smarter than the smartest human would come "probably end of next year" (the prediction). In January 2026, at the World Economic Forum in Davos, he said it might come "by the end of this year", and "no later than next year" (the later prediction). The page keeps both, so the move shows.
Across the leaders, since 2023, five have brought their dates nearer, three have held them, and two have pushed them later (the claims page). The page draws every leader's forecasts over time, one small chart each.
What happens next
New predictions go on the page as the fifteen make them, and the picture of what the industry expects moves with them. The question I will keep asking is whether the two voices, the builders and the long-time thinkers, are drawing together or apart. You can watch it on the claims page, where every prediction links to the moment it was said.
Widened 2026-10-19: this post first covered 30 predictions by Sam Altman and Musk; I widened it the same day to all fifteen people (who the ledger covers).
Rewritten 2026-10-20: the first version of this post counted how many predictions had come true. I have since decided the ledger records what the leaders predict, not whether they were right, so the counts are gone (what the ledger is for).
Updated 2026-10-20: two more predictions by Mustafa Suleyman went on the page, so this post now says "more than 300" rather than an exact count that changes each time one is added. The exact number is always on the claims page.
How the ledger works · who the ledger covers · what the ledger is for · every change, with its reason.
Sources: The claims page · How the ledger works · Every prediction, as a table · What the ledger is for, and who it covers.
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