Ask whether we are in the singularity yet, and the honest answer today is no. But a bare "no" does not say whether nothing is happening or a great deal is. This site had that problem with its own headline.
I am John Fredrickson, and my site, the AGI Zeitgeist Tracker, asks whether we are in the singularity, the idea that machines will one day get smarter so fast that the world changes faster than anyone can keep up with. Its test has four parts: how fast AI is improving, whether anyone can still forecast it, how much of the work of improving AI is done by AI itself, and whether the world's economy has started growing far faster than it ever has. All four have to cross a line set in advance, and stay across for a year, before the test says yes (the test's rules).
A Headline That Could Only Say One Thing
Until 17 October 2026, the top of the home page said "Not yet." and nothing else. That is the test's answer, and it was right. But the test will give that answer every day until the day the singularity starts, so it told a visitor nothing about whether anything was moving.
What the Top of the Page Says Now
On 17 October 2026 I added a number under the answer (the change and my reasons, in the site's changelog). Each part has its own line to cross, and the number is the average of how far the parts have come towards their lines: 32 percent. The pace of AI's improvement is 43 percent of the way to its line, the share of AI research done by AI is 52 percent, and the economy is at 0, because its growth is still below its own long-run average. The forecasts part cannot be scored yet, so the average is over the other three.
Under the number, one sentence says where each part would go if current trends simply continued: AI's share of the research would cross its line in 2027, the pace somewhere between 2028 and 2048, and the economy not at all. So on current trends the test is not met (the home page).
Why the Economy Is Always Named Beside It
An average can mislead. One part racing ahead could make the number look healthy while the others stand still, and the rules I wrote for the test warn against exactly that. So the number is never shown without the part furthest behind, and today that is the economy, at 0.
That matters more than the average. The test passes only when all four parts cross their lines, so with one part not moving at all, the test has not begun to pass (how the number is worked out). The 32 percent is not a forecast. It shows which parts are moving and which are not.
The number also decides nothing. The answer is still worked out from each part against its own line, and it still says "Not yet." It will stay that way until all four parts have crossed and stayed across for a year (the numbers as they stand).
How the headline is worked out · every change, with its reason.
Sources: The ruling and how the number is worked out · The numbers as they stand · The test's rules.
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